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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.